registry/compare
Role then format against Direct answer
Both scored on the same cases against claude-fable-5, same judge. The intervals tell you whether the gap is real or noise.
suite reasoning-chainmodel claude-fable-5n=168 public cases each
role-then-format
v2 by @ilya91.7
86.5 to 95.0 · holdout 90.3
direct-answer
v1 by @system69.0
60.5 to 76.5 · holdout 68.5
Intervals do not overlap. The 22.7 point gap is significant at this sample size.role-then-format wins
Metricrole-then-formatdirect-answerBetter
Public score91.769.0left
Holdout score90.368.5left
Interval width8.516.0left
Cost per run$1.850$1.021right
Median latency2.4s2.0sright
Sample size168126left
Reading this verdict
- Overlap
- Two entries are only meaningfully apart when their confidence intervals do not overlap. A higher number with an overlapping interval is a coin flip, not a win.
- Holdout
- The public score can be gamed by tuning to visible cases. A gap between public and holdout is the tell.
- Reproduce
- evalness compare \ role-then-format direct-answer \ --model claude-fable-5